We check the accuracy of 20 Arthur Hayes market calls
For some reason, crypto traders look to Arthur Hayes for market forecasts. Hayes rose to prominence as CEO of BitMEX, once the world’s largest crypto derivatives exchange, where his market-maker traded against his own customers. Hayes’ fame continued after his indictment and house arrest, and he’s now chief investment officer at Maelstrom. Although a comprehensive accounting of every prediction Hayes ever made is beyond the scope of this article, Protos has analyzed 20 of his most recent predictions and listed the results below. Sub-$50K bitcoin On September 6, 2024, Hayes predicted, “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.” Unfortunately, bitcoin didn’t drop below $50,000. Later that day, it briefly dropped to $52,546, but it has never traded at a lower price since. Conclusion: Fail. Crypto’s March peak On January 6, 2025, Hayes predicted that crypto markets would peak in mid-March 2025. Ho...